Study Will Assess the Safety, Neutralizing Activity and Efficacy of AZD3152 in Adults With Conditions Increasing Risk of Inadequate Protective Immune Response After Vaccination and Thus Are at High Risk of Developing Severe COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the safetytransplantdouble blindrandomized doubleand efficacy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipant19chronic obstructivesolid
• Sponsor's past trials: 1853 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD7442 for Post- Exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Adults NCT04625972 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD7442 for Pre-exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Adult. NCT04625725 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Phase II/III Study of AZD2816, for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults NCT04973449 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study in Adults of AZD1222 and rAd26-S Administered as Heterologous Prime-Boost Regimen for the Prevention of COVID-19 NCT04684446 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Open-label, Dose-ranging Study in Adults and Pediatric Individuals ≥ 12 Years of Age to Assess the Safety, Immunogenicity, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD7442, for Pre-exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 NCT05375760 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.