A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD6234 After Repeat Dose Administration in Participants Who Are Overweight or Obese

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1864 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamicsplacebopharmacodynamics of
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsscreeningadministrationkg
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 142 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of AZD6234 Following Single Ascending Dose Administration to Healthy Subjects Who Are Overweight or Obese NCT05511025 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate ARD-101 in Adults With Obesity NCT05121441 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Effects of Repeat Dosing of GSK1521498 NCT00976105 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacodynamics of AZD4144 in Participants With Obesity NCT06942923 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Characterise the Physiology of Weight Loss and Regain Under Dietary, Behavioural and Pharmacological Interventions in Healthy Obese Subjects NCT01597609 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.