Phase 2 Study of Irinotecan Liposome Injection, Oxaliplatin, 5-fluorouracil/Levoleucovorin in Japanese Participants Not Previously Treated for Metastatic Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcanceradenocarcinomachemotherapyoxaliplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsvisitjointproducts
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19130 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 236288 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Safety of Irinotecan Liposome Injection, 5-fluorouracil/Leucovorin Plus Oxaliplatin in Patients Not Previously Treated for Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer, Compared to Nab-paclitaxel+Gemcitabine Treatment NCT04083235 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study of Irinotecan Liposome in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT04796948 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Irinotecan Liposome in Combination With 5-FU/LV Versus 5-FU/LV in Second-line Therapy for Gemcitabine-Refractory Pancreatic Cancer NCT05074589 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Study of Nanoliposomal Irinotecan (Nal-IRI)-Containing Regimens Versus Nab-paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine in Patients With Previously Untreated, Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT02551991 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Oxaliplatin Combined With Irinotecan Liposome Injection II Through Hepatic Artery Infusion (HAIC) Followed by 5-FU/LV (HAIC) or Tegorgor Oral Combination Therapy for Hepatic Metastasis of Pancreatic Cancer NCT06538623 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.