Study of a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Candidate Formulation in Adults Aged 60 Years and Older
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-03-11, after 2024-04-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapychemotherapyeligiblecancerstage
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinereceiptvaccinationadministrationevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 300 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 300 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study on the Safety and Immune Response to an mRNA-based RSV Investigational Vaccine in Healthy Adults Aged 18-45 Years NCT06573281 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study of a Respiratory Syncytial Virus/Human Metapneumovirus Vaccine Candidate NCT06134648 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of an RSV F Vaccine in Older Adults NCT02608502 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Extension Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Revaccination Dose of the RSVPreF3 OA Investigational Vaccine in Adults 60 Years and Older Who Participated in the RSV OA=ADJ-002 Study NCT04657198 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the RSV-F Vaccine in Older Adults Previously Treated With the Same Vaccine or Placebo in the Prior Year. NCT02593071 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.