A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ZYIL1 Oral Capsules for the Treatment of Patients With Mild to Moderately Active Ulcerative Colitis Resistant or Intolerant to Oral Aminosalicylates

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to randomizationpriordiagnosiscolitistreatment of
  Phrases that lowered it: mildparticipantsto moderatevaccineto evaluate
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of GSK1399686 in Patients With Mild to Moderately Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01036022 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study of OSE-127 vs Placebo in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04882007 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study of OST-122 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT04353791 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Trial of HMPL-004 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01805791 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of ST-0529 in Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03844932 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.