A Comparative Study of Glucocorticoids Efficacy in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-08-01, after 2024-08-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failureacuteoxygenonsetct
Phrases that lowered it: respiratorynasalefficacythe aimaim of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 26 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 567445 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 47388 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone, hydrocortisone, methylprednisolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Combination of an Inhaled Budesonide and Ipratropium in Patients at Risk of Developing ARDS NCT06657079 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- COVID-19-associated ARDS Treated With Dexamethasone: Alliance Covid-19 Brasil III NCT04327401 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Methylprednisolone vs. Dexamethasone in COVID-19 Pneumonia (MEDEAS RCT) NCT04636671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Inhaled Steroids for the Treatment of Early Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome NCT04064684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- Oral Prednisolone in Severe Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01353235 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.