A Study to Find a Suitable Dose of BI 765883 and to Test Whether it Helps People With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer When Taken Alone or Together With Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pancreaticgemcitabinebowelpurposeadenocarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbithe trialopendrug
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 824 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 147972 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15266 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study to Assess the Efficacy & Safety of Gemcitabine + Nab Paclitaxel With or Without Dociparstat in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Patients NCT01461915 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• An Open-Label Study of a Novel JAK-inhibitor, INCB047986, Given in Patients With Advanced Malignancies NCT01929941 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• First-line Treatment of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine NCT02564146 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Different Doses of BI 765049 in People With Advanced Cancer of the Colon, Rectum, Stomach, or Pancreas NCT06882746 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of APX005M With Gemcitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel With or Without Nivolumab in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT03214250 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.