Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Once Daily Oral Administration of AZD5004 Versus Placebo for 26 Weeks in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelplacebostablegidisease
  Phrases that lowered it: type diabetesto evaluateevaluate thethe efficacyweight
• Sponsor's past trials: 1931 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability After Multiple Oral Doses of AZD1656 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Treated With Metformin NCT00817778 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Japan Dose Regimen Study of AZD1656 in Japanese Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients NCT01152385 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability After Four Weeks of Treatment With AZD1656 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00856908 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate P-Glucose, Safety and Tolerability After Oral Single Dosing of AZD6370 in Type 2 Diabetic Patients NCT00690287 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD5004 in Healthy Japanese Participants and Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT06703658 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.