A Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD5004 in Healthy Japanese Participants and Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1938 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebotypetolerability pharmacokineticsdiabetesdiabetic
  Phrases that lowered it: japanesehealthysinglepharmacokineticskg
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Japan Dose Regimen Study of AZD1656 in Japanese Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients NCT01152385 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• To Study Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of AZD1656 in Japanese Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) Patients NCT00916604 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Once Daily Oral Administration of AZD5004 Versus Placebo for 26 Weeks in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. NCT06579105 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose Study With Healthy Male Volunteers and Type II Diabetic Patients NCT00886366 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• To Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics and the Effect of Fasting After Single Oral Doses of AZD5658 in Type 2 Diabetes NCT01176097 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.