A Master Protocol for Orforglipron in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Obesity or Overweight

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycentralsurgeryrandomizationobesity
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe trial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1649 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Obstructive Sleep Apnea Master Protocol GPIF: A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT05412004 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study of Retatrutide (LY3437943) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Obesity or Overweight NCT05929079 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Learn More About How Well BAY2586116 Works and How Safe it is in Participants With Moderate to Severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04713826 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Lorundrostat in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Hypertension NCT06785454 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study of Retatrutide (LY3437943) in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight NCT05929066 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.