Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Exidavnemab in Patients With Parkinson's Disease and Patients With Multiple System Atrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tomriplaceboinfusion
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstrialparticipantevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of DA-9805 for Parkinson's Disease NCT03189563 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Staccato Apomorphine (AZ-009) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Experiencing OFF Episodes NCT05979415 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• NE3107 Activity and Safety in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Using Levodopa NCT05083260 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Pioglitazone in Early Parkinson's Disease NCT01280123 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.