Pioglitazone in Early Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancergreater thanor equalequal toprior
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholkgdaysmokinghistory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14654 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Placebo- and Active Controlled Study of Preladenant in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Parkinson's Disease (P04938) NCT01155466 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Exidavnemab in Patients With Parkinson's Disease and Patients With Multiple System Atrophy NCT06671938 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Aplindore in Patients With Early Parkinson Disease NCT00809302 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Study of Urate Elevation in Parkinson's Disease, Phase 3 NCT02642393 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of IkT-148009 in Untreated Parkinson's Disease NCT05424276 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.