Upfront Ruxolitinib for Chronic Graft-vs-host Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: gvhdpatientgraftacutetransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatepatients whoagedmildday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 328 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 69639 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Activity, Safety and Pharmacokinetics in Pediatric Subjects With Moderate and Severe Chronic Graft vs. Host Disease After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant NCT03774082 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ruxolitinib vs Best Available Therapy (BAT) in Patients With Steroid-refractory Chronic Graft vs. Host Disease (GvHD) After Bone Marrow Transplantation (REACH3) NCT03112603 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Study of Ruxolitinib for Acute and Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease NCT05121142 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Ruxolitinib Versus Best Available Therapy in Patients With Corticosteroid-refractory Acute Graft vs. Host Disease After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT02913261 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ruxolitinib in Combination With Corticosteroids for the Treatment of Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (REACH-1) NCT02953678 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.