HER2HEART-US: Prevention of Cardiotoxicity in Breast Cancer Patients Receiving HER2-directed Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancertreatingconcurrentstage
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andasthmasafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 132 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1009 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 194960 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17080 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study of Neoadjuvant Trastuzumab+Docetaxel+NPLD+/-Bevacizumab in Her2-pos. Early Breast Cancer NCT01367028 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel With Trastuzumab and Lapatinib in HER2-Positive Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT01827163 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Treating Breast Cancer Patients Undergoing Trastuzumab Treatment With Carvedilol to Reduce Incidence of Heart Failure NCT03879629 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Study of TH Versus THL in First Line Treatment of HER2-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01526369 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of an Aromatase Inhibitor in Combination With Lapatinib, Trastuzumab or Both for the Treatment of Hormone Receptor Positive, HER2+ Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01160211 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.