A Study to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of an Aromatase Inhibitor in Combination With Lapatinib, Trastuzumab or Both for the Treatment of Hormone Receptor Positive, HER2+ Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectbreast cancerchemotherapyher2qtc
  Phrases that lowered it: liverhepatichistorysubjectsendocrine
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 281 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 294 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9538 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Continued HER2 Suppression With Lapatinib Plus Trastuzumab Versus Trastuzumab Alone NCT00968968 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Biomarkers Associated With Response to Subsequent Therapies in Subjects With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02213042 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Tucatinib, Palbociclib and Letrozole in Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT03054363 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Overexpressing, First or Second Line Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects NCT00709618 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• De-escalation Adjuvant Chemo in HER2+/ER-/node-neg Early BC Patients Who Achieved PCR After Neoadjuvant Chemo & Dual HER2 Blockade NCT04675827 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.