A Study to Investigate Tonlamarsen for the Treatment of Adults With Uncontrolled Hypertension (KARDINAL)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyuncontrolledhypertensionplacebounstable
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andparticipantssafety ofto evaluate
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety in Participants With Uncontrolled Hypertension on Two or More Medications Including Participants With Resistant Hypertension NCT07790120 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY2623091 in Participants With High Blood Pressure NCT02194465 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy & Safety Study of YH22162 vs Telmisartan/Amlodipine in Patients With Hypertension Inappropriately Controlled on Telmisartan/Amlodipine Treatment NCT02620163 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study With ACT-132577 (Aprocitentan) in Participants With Essential Hypertension NCT02603809 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• An 8-week Study to Evaluate the Dose Response of AHU377 in Combination With Valsartan 320 mg in Patients With Mild-to-moderate Systolic Hypertension NCT01281306 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.