18F-Dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Study to Explore Dopamine Synthesis Capacity in the Whole Striatum After 2 Weeks of Treatment With Ralmitaront or Placebo in Participants With Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mridsmschizophreniastrokedefined
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstimes thedrugcrossoverbody mass
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1041 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of the Efficacy and the Safety of RO6889450 (Ralmitaront) vs Placebo in Patients With an Acute Exacerbation of Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder NCT04512066 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Effects of RO6889450 (Ralmitaront) in Participants With Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder and Negative Symptoms NCT03669640 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate The Effects of RO5545965 in Participants With Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia Treated With Antipsychotics NCT02824055 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study of CYR-101 in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT00861796 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Pediatric Schizophrenia Efficacy and Safety Study NCT01911429 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.