A Study to Investigate the Impact of Multiple Doses of Itraconazole on AZD5004 in Healthy Participants and Multiple Doses of AZD5004 on Combined Oral Ethinyl Oestradiol and Levonorgestrel in Healthy Female Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipledosesdiseasetype diabetespotential must
  Phrases that lowered it: healthythe pharmacokineticsparticipantskgparticipant
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1984 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 211 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Pharmacokinetics of AZD2389 When Administered Alone and in Combination With Itraconazole in Healthy Participants NCT06846528 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Oral Doses of AZD5213 in Healthy Male and Non Fertile Female Subjects NCT01171105 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Participants to Investigate Relative Bioavailability of AZD5004 in Three Solid Oral Formulations NCT06996886 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 Administered Alone and in Combination With Itraconazole in Healthy Volunteers NCT03843060 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Doses and Relative Bioavailability of AZD5004 in Healthy Participants NCT06555822 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.