Capecitabine as Maintenance Therapy vs Observation in Early-stage Triple-negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancercapecitabineadjuvantchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsgroupbreasteffectaccording
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 72426 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8558 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Capecitabine Metronomic Chemotherapy to Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT01112826 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Second-line Endocrine Treatment Followed by Capecitabine Versus Capecitabine Followed by Endocrine Treatment in Patients With Metastatic ER Positive Breast Cancer NCT00684216 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Capecitabine and Radiotherapy in the Adjuvant Treatment of Resistant Breast Cancer NCT03958721 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab + Paclitaxel + Capecitabine in Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01069796 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Studying the Benefits of Adjuvant Sequential vs. Combined Taxane Based Chemotherapy, Followed by Different Biological Treatment Strategies in Early, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT00670878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.