Efficacy and Safety of Etoricoxib+Diacerein in Osteoarthritis.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-10-15, after 2024-05-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartsclerosisprogressiveevidenceacute
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritisparticipantsoasafety of -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 67247 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4234 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- diacerein, etoricoxib, meloxicam
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy of Etoricoxib 30 mg Versus Celecoxib 200 mg in Korean Participants With Osteoarthritis NCT01554163 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Effect of Diacerein vs Celecoxib on Symptoms and Structural Changes in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02688400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of Orally Administered CR845 in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Hip or Knee NCT02524197 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of AMZ001 for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis Symptoms NCT06693648 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Single Center 2-way Crossover Study to Investigate the Mechanism of Action of Etoricoxib in Subjects With Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT01619150 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.