Safety and Efficacy of Etoricoxib 30 mg Versus Celecoxib 200 mg in Korean Participants With Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-03-31, after 2012-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painpatientpatientsscaleiv
Phrases that lowered it: has historyallergicalcoholnasalphysical -
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 367 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4511 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 367 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 36679 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4511 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, etoricoxib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Single Dose Pharmacokinetics of Two and Proof of Efficacy of One New Etoricoxib Gel Formulation in Participants With Osteoarthritis (MK-0663-168) NCT01980940 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Etoricoxib+Diacerein in Osteoarthritis. NCT07549386 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study of CG100649 in Osteoarthritis Patients NCT01765296 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Etoricoxib/Betamethasone Combination in Acute Bursitis, Tendinitis and Synovitis NCT07328022 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Bioequivalence Study With Clinical Endpoint for Diclofenac Sodium Topical Gel 1% NCT02913521 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.