The Single Dose Pharmacokinetics of Two and Proof of Efficacy of One New Etoricoxib Gel Formulation in Participants With Osteoarthritis (MK-0663-168)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-11-26, after 2013-12-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hgheartpainmmfailure
Phrases that lowered it: kneejointosteoarthritisefficacyarthritis -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 8 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 393 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 19
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 613 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 117 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dimethyl sulfoxide, etoricoxib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy of Etoricoxib 30 mg Versus Celecoxib 200 mg in Korean Participants With Osteoarthritis NCT01554163 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Etoricoxib+Diacerein in Osteoarthritis. NCT07549386 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Etoricoxib/Betamethasone Combination in Acute Bursitis, Tendinitis and Synovitis NCT07328022 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Exploratory Study of PENNSAID Gel to Treat Symptoms of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT01119898 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Bioequivalence Study With Clinical Endpoint for Diclofenac Sodium Topical Gel 1% NCT02913521 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.