A Multicentre, Randomised, Double-blind, Positive-drug-controlled Phase III Clinical Trial on the Efficacy and Safety of CZ1S Peroneal Nerve Block Combined With Popliteal Artery and Posterior Capsule Gap Block for Postoperative Analgesia in Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painheartinjurychronicnerve
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatetrialefficacyand safetydiseases
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of HSK21542 in Patients for Postoperative Pain Treatment NCT05390905 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Femoral Nerve Block With EXPAREL in Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT02713178 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of HSK21542 for Postoperative Analgesia of Subjects Undergoing Elective Laparoscopic Surgery Under General Anesthesia NCT04738357 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Acute Osteoarthritis Experimental Model Study. NCT01231490 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Preliminary Efficacy of Multiple Subcutaneous Doses of OLP-1002 NCT04677933 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.