Phase 2 Anastrozole and Vandetanib (ZD6474) in Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 42% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerulnher2aminotransferasereceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: pressurehgscreeningmonths beforeblood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1233 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of an Aromatase Inhibitor in Combination With Lapatinib, Trastuzumab or Both for the Treatment of Hormone Receptor Positive, HER2+ Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01160211 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• ZK 230211 in Postmenopausal Woman With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00555919 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LEE011 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01958021 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate the Therapeutic Benefit of Fulvestrant in Combination With ZACTIMA in Postmenopausal Women With Bone Predominant, Hormone Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00811369 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase III Palbociclib With Endocrine Therapy vs. Capecitabine in HR+/HER2- MBC With Resistance to Aromatase Inhibitors NCT02028507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.