ZK 230211 in Postmenopausal Woman With Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerstagecarcinomametastatic breastiv
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacysafetyagedto investigateendocrine
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study of KHK2375 in Subjects With Advanced or Recurrent Breast Cancer NCT03291886 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Anastrozole and Vandetanib (ZD6474) in Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer NCT00481845 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Exemestane in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT00810797 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ib Dose De-escalation Study With BYL719 in Premenopausal Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02058381 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of BEBT-209 in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT06047184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.