Safety Study of Nicotinamide to Treat Alzheimer's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-07-31, after 2008-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosisivimagingbrainscan
Phrases that lowered it: moderateadmild toabusescreening -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 18942 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 95 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 26 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18942 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3702 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 68.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niacinamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nicotinamide as an Early Alzheimer's Disease Treatment NCT03061474 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- NAD Therapy for Improving Memory and Brain Blood Flow in Older Adults With Mild Cognitive Impairment NCT03482167 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Sirtuin-NAD Activator in Alzheimer's Disease NCT05040321 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- NAD Supplementation and Vascular Health in PAD NCT06534944 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Resveratrol for Alzheimer's Disease NCT01504854 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.