Sirtuin-NAD Activator in Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinestrokedetermine whetherleftdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participanttrialevaluateclinicalhba1c
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nicotinamide as an Early Alzheimer's Disease Treatment NCT03061474 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• The Study of Nasal Insulin in the Fight Against Forgetfulness (SNIFF) NCT01767909 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Alzheimer Disease Proof of Concept Study With BI 409306 Versus Placebo NCT02240693 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Xanamem™ in Subjects With Mild Dementia Due to AD (XanADu) NCT02727699 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of PRI-002 in Patients With MCI to Mild Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT06182085 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.