Nicotinamide as an Early Alzheimer's Disease Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-08-30, after 2017-07-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdementiachild bearingbearing potentialischemic
Phrases that lowered it: milddisease modifyingparticipanttrialdiseases -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 98 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 165256 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 27322 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niacinamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety Study of Nicotinamide to Treat Alzheimer's Disease NCT00580931 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Sirtuin-NAD Activator in Alzheimer's Disease NCT05040321 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- NAD Therapy for Improving Memory and Brain Blood Flow in Older Adults With Mild Cognitive Impairment NCT03482167 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- The Study of Nasal Insulin in the Fight Against Forgetfulness (SNIFF) NCT01767909 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Benfotiamine in Alzheimer's Disease: A Pilot Study NCT02292238 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.