Study of Pralatrexate vs. Erlotinib for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After at Least 1 Prior Platinum-based Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-06-24, after 2008-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcancerhave receivedstagechemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: dementiamentalcurrentclinicallaboratory -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18862 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4082 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, folic acid, pralatrexate, vitamin b
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Erlotinib in Combination With Pralatrexate in Advanced Malignancies NCT01532011 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Pemetrexed or Docetaxel With or Without Erlotinib in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00660816 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Study of Patritumab in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). (HER3-Lung) NCT02134015 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Pirfenidone Combined With Standard First-Line Chemotherapy in Advanced-Stage Lung NSCLC NCT03177291 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Study of Pemetrexed Versus Gefitinib in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Previously Received Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Without Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT00891579 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.