Photopheresis for the Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 23% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustchronicacutecelltransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: kgallergyasthmabloodday
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6615 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 13 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Extracorporeal Photopheresis and Low Dose Aldesleukin in Treating Patients With Steroid Refractory Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT03007238 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Biomarkers in Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease and Extracorporeal Photopheresis Added to Investigator Chosen Therapies of Steroid Refractory Acute GVHD NCT02322190 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Treatment (BMT CTN 0802) NCT01002742 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Addition of Etanercept and Extracorporeal Photopheresis (ECP) to Standard Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GVHD) Prophylaxis in Stem Cell Transplant NCT00639717 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Methoxsalen and Extracorporeal Photopheresis (ECP) for the Treatment of Pediatric Participants With Steroid Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease NCT02524847 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.