Extracorporeal Photopheresis and Low Dose Aldesleukin in Treating Patients With Steroid Refractory Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorcellscellheartgraft
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstrialaminotransferasecorticosteroidsrefractory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Trial of Low-Dose Interleukin-2 (IL-2) Added to Extra-Corporeal Photopheresis for Steroid-Refractory cGVHD NCT02340676 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Photopheresis for the Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease NCT00609609 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Abatacept to Treat Steroid Refractory Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT01954979 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Study of Individual Adult and Pediatric Patient Dose-escalated Interleukin-2 Therapy for Refractory Chronic GVHD NCT02318082 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Methoxsalen and Extracorporeal Photopheresis (ECP) for the Treatment of Pediatric Participants With Steroid Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease NCT02524847 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.