Sorafenib and Erlotinib or Sorafenib Alone in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Progressing on Erlotinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsmallerlotiniblungcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: openpatients whowith advancedpatients withsolid
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sorafenib/Erlotinib Versus Erlotinib Alone in Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00600015 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• PK Trial of Sorafenib & Erlotinib in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT00759928 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind Trial of Erlotinib/Pazopanib or Erlotinib/Placebo in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT01027598 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Trial of Sorafenib Plus Ixabepilone in HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00825734 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.