Sorafenib/Erlotinib Versus Erlotinib Alone in Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecellventricularcarcinomastudy treatment
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoinvestigatethis trialhave receivedpatients with
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sorafenib and Erlotinib or Sorafenib Alone in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Progressing on Erlotinib NCT00609804 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib Treatment in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After Failure of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor-tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor NCT00922584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A 3rd/4th Line Placebo-controlled Trial of Sorafenib in Patients With Predominantly Non Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). NCT00863746 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Tivantinib Plus Erlotinib Versus Placebo Plus Erlotinib for the Treatment of Non-squamous, Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01244191 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Study of Sorafenib Maintenance in Patients With ED-SCLC After Response to Induction Chemotherapy NCT01159327 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.