Sorafenib Treatment in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After Failure of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor-tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungsmall cellnon smallnsclccancer
  Phrases that lowered it: upperclinicalefficacy andweeks beforelimit of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 3rd/4th Line Placebo-controlled Trial of Sorafenib in Patients With Predominantly Non Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). NCT00863746 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib/Erlotinib Versus Erlotinib Alone in Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00600015 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Intra-patient Dose Escalation Study of Sorafenib in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00954278 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib in Treating Non-Smokers or Former Light Smokers With Relapsed or Refractory Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00754923 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Sorafenib and Thoracic Radiation for Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00543335 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.