Sorafenib in Treating Non-Smokers or Former Light Smokers With Relapsed or Refractory Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsquamousstageconcurrenttumor
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasebleedingopencooperative oncologyeastern cooperative
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sorafenib, Cisplatin, and Etoposide in Treating Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00726986 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Intra-patient Dose Escalation Study of Sorafenib in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00954278 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib in Treating Patients With Advanced Malignant Solid Tumors NCT00810394 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib Treatment in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After Failure of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor-tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor NCT00922584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A 3rd/4th Line Placebo-controlled Trial of Sorafenib in Patients With Predominantly Non Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). NCT00863746 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.