A 3rd/4th Line Placebo-controlled Trial of Sorafenib in Patients With Predominantly Non Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC).

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: squamouscellcarcinomasorafenibadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: relapsedupperaminotransferasenormalor refractory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 259 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sorafenib Treatment in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After Failure of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor-tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor NCT00922584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib and Thoracic Radiation for Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00543335 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Study of Low Dose Chemotherapy Plus Sorafenib as Initial Therapy for Patients With Advanced Non-Squamous Cell NSCLC NCT00801801 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Sorafenib in Treating Non-Smokers or Former Light Smokers With Relapsed or Refractory Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00754923 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Sorafenib/Erlotinib Versus Erlotinib Alone in Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00600015 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.