A Study Combining FOLFOX or FOLFIRI With AG-013736 or Bevacizumab (Avastin) in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer After Failure Of One First Line Regimen

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastatictumorregimenbevacizumab
  Phrases that lowered it: randomizedtreatmentag25the study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 247 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6628 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ABT-165 Plus FOLFIRI vs Bevacizumab Plus FOLFIRI in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With Fluoropyrimidine, Oxaliplatin and Bevacizumab NCT03368859 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• OPAL Study: A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Combination With FOLFOXIRI in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00940303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Avastin + Erbitux + Irinotecan as 2nd Line Treatment of Colorectal Cancer NCT00681876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Avastin for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as Salvage Treatment NCT00717990 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Sequential and Concurrent FOLFOXIRI/Bevacizumab Regimens Versus FOLFOX/Bevacizumab in First-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01765582 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.