Phase 1 Study of NY-ESO-1 Overlapping Peptides in Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapycarcinomaovarianheart
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationclinicalvaccinelabelimmunogenicity
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vaccine Therapy in Stage II, III, or IV Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancers NCT00803569 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of WT1 or NY-ESO-1 Vaccine and Nivolumab For Recurrent Ovarian Cancer NCT02737787 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study of IMF-001 in Patients With Malignancies Expressing NY-ESO-1 NCT01234012 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• CpG 7909/Montanide ISA 720 With or Without Cyclophosphamide in Combination Either With NY-ESO-1-derived Peptides or the NY-ESO-1 Protein for NY-ESO-1-expressing Tumors NCT00819806 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• NY-ESO-1 Vaccine in Combination With Ipilimumab in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01810016 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.