A Phase I Study of WT1 or NY-ESO-1 Vaccine and Nivolumab For Recurrent Ovarian Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorgreatercalledmoderate tocancer
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofcombinationnormaldailyaccording
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 420 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4205 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1 Study of NY-ESO-1 Overlapping Peptides in Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer NCT00616941 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Vaccine Therapy in Stage II, III, or IV Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancers NCT00803569 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of IMF-001 in Patients With Malignancies Expressing NY-ESO-1 NCT01234012 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of an Anti-cancer Immunotherapy Combined With Standard Neoadjuvant Treatment in Patients With WT1-positive Primary Invasive Breast Cancer NCT01220128 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• CpG 7909/Montanide ISA 720 With or Without Cyclophosphamide in Combination Either With NY-ESO-1-derived Peptides or the NY-ESO-1 Protein for NY-ESO-1-expressing Tumors NCT00819806 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.