Combined Treatment of Sorafenib and Pegylated Interferon α2b in Stage IV Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomapatients mustcancerstagemetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andseverethe efficacyinterfere with
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Vemurafenib and High-dose Interferon Alfa-2b in Melanoma NCT01943422 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib Plus PEG-interferon in Advanced Melanoma Patients Harboring the V600BRAF Mutation NCT01959633 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Systemic Therapy With Interferon, Interleukin-2 and BRAF Inhibitor NCT01603212 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• NAM-Trial: Multiferon in Malignant Melanoma NCT01341158 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant Therapy of Pegylated Interferon- 2b Plus Melanoma Peptide Vaccine NCT00861406 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.