Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib Plus PEG-interferon in Advanced Melanoma Patients Harboring the V600BRAF Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: interferontherapyheartmetastaticmelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: bowelthe efficacydiabetesmellituspatients who
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Vemurafenib and High-dose Interferon Alfa-2b in Melanoma NCT01943422 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib + Fotemustine to Treat Advanced Melanoma Patients With V600BRAF Mutation Recurred While on Vemurafenib NCT01983124 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Combined Treatment of Sorafenib and Pegylated Interferon α2b in Stage IV Metastatic Melanoma NCT00623402 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma Patients NCT03224208 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Vemurafenib in Combination With Cobimetinib (Continuous and Intermittent) in BRAFV600-mutation Positive Patients With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma NCT02583516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.