Safety and Efficacy Study of Vemurafenib and High-dose Interferon Alfa-2b in Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cardiacpatients mustheartfailuredefined
  Phrases that lowered it: alfadiseaseshcvefficacyclinical trial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib Plus PEG-interferon in Advanced Melanoma Patients Harboring the V600BRAF Mutation NCT01959633 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Systemic Therapy With Interferon, Interleukin-2 and BRAF Inhibitor NCT01603212 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Combined Treatment of Sorafenib and Pegylated Interferon α2b in Stage IV Metastatic Melanoma NCT00623402 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Trial of Vemurafenib and Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With Advanced BRAF Mutant Melanoma NCT01897116 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Encorafenib + Binimetinib + Pembrolizumab in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.