Study of Molecular Response in Adult Patients on Nilotinib With Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (Ph+ CML) in Chronic Phase and a Suboptimal Molecular Response to Imatinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiapatients mustimatinibtreatedmolecular
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningdailymaleopen labeldays
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nilotinib Versus Standard Imatinib (400/600 mg Every Day (QD)) Comparing the Kinetics of Complete Molecular Response for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Chronic Phase (CML-CP) Pts With Evidence of Persistent Leukemia by Real-time Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RQ-PCR) NCT00760877 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Nilotinib 300mg Twice Daily in Patients With Philadelphia Positive Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia (CML) in Chronic Phase Who Are Intolerant to Prior Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors. NCT02108951 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Nilotinib ± Peg-IFN for First Line Chronic Phase CML Patients NCT02201459 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study of Dasatinib vs Imatinib in Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) Who Did Not Have Favorable Response to Imatinib NCT01593254 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study That Switched Patients From Imatinib to Nilotinib and Then Was Followed by Treatment Cessation NCT01744665 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.