Nilotinib Versus Standard Imatinib (400/600 mg Every Day (QD)) Comparing the Kinetics of Complete Molecular Response for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Chronic Phase (CML-CP) Pts With Evidence of Persistent Leukemia by Real-time Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RQ-PCR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaheartpatientcellto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelan openstudylongadministration
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Molecular Response in Adult Patients on Nilotinib With Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (Ph+ CML) in Chronic Phase and a Suboptimal Molecular Response to Imatinib NCT00644878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• A Study That Switched Patients From Imatinib to Nilotinib and Then Was Followed by Treatment Cessation NCT01744665 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• An Open-label, Randomised Multicenter Phase 3b Study to Determine the Confirmed Rate of Molecular Response ≥ 4 Log (MR4) at Two Years NCT02174445 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Nilotinib ± Peg-IFN for First Line Chronic Phase CML Patients NCT02201459 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Nilotinib 300mg Twice Daily in Patients With Philadelphia Positive Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia (CML) in Chronic Phase Who Are Intolerant to Prior Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors. NCT02108951 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.