Nilotinib ± Peg-IFN for First Line Chronic Phase CML Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartpatientsnilotinibconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: dailymgmaleproductefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 91 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40023 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nilotinib + Pegylated Interferon Alpha 2a for Untreated Chronic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia NCT01294618 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Nilotinib 300mg Twice Daily in Patients With Philadelphia Positive Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia (CML) in Chronic Phase Who Are Intolerant to Prior Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors. NCT02108951 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Study of Molecular Response in Adult Patients on Nilotinib With Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (Ph+ CML) in Chronic Phase and a Suboptimal Molecular Response to Imatinib NCT00644878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• TKI and Interferon Alpha Evaluation Initiated by the German Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Study Group - the TIGER Study NCT01657604 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Determining the Maximum Tolerated Dose of Low Dose Interferon-alpha in Conjunction With Nilotinib in Pretreated Philadelphia Chromosome Positive (Ph+) Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Patients in Chronic Phase (CML-CP) NCT01220648 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.