Determining the Maximum Tolerated Dose of Low Dose Interferon-alpha in Conjunction With Nilotinib in Pretreated Philadelphia Chromosome Positive (Ph+) Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Patients in Chronic Phase (CML-CP)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiamyeloidchronicdiagnosistreated
  Phrases that lowered it: relevantdiabetespatients whoopen labelclinically
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 297 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 377 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nilotinib ± Peg-IFN for First Line Chronic Phase CML Patients NCT02201459 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Nilotinib 300mg Twice Daily in Patients With Philadelphia Positive Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia (CML) in Chronic Phase Who Are Intolerant to Prior Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors. NCT02108951 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Study of Molecular Response in Adult Patients on Nilotinib With Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (Ph+ CML) in Chronic Phase and a Suboptimal Molecular Response to Imatinib NCT00644878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nilotinib as First Line Treatment in Philadelphia Chromosome Positive(Ph+) Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Chronic Phase (CML-CP) NCT01274351 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib + Pegylated Interferon Alpha 2a for Untreated Chronic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia NCT01294618 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.