Nilotinib + Pegylated Interferon Alpha 2a for Untreated Chronic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-09-30, after 2011-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: leukemiaventricularleftuncontrolledcml
Phrases that lowered it: the safetyinterferondiseasesrangediabetes -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 25 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 50 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1896 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 636 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- interferon, nilotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nilotinib ± Peg-IFN for First Line Chronic Phase CML Patients NCT02201459 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Nilotinib in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Chronic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia NCT00809211 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Nilotinib and Imatinib Mesylate in Treating Patients With Early Chronic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia NCT00769327 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- TKI and Interferon Alpha Evaluation Initiated by the German Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Study Group - the TIGER Study NCT01657604 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Combination of Dasatinib and Peg-Interferon Alpha 2b in First Line for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in Chronic Phase NCT01872442 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.