A Study to Assess CH1504 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcelltherapypatients withcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningeffect ofdrugpartnermale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8457 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of CH-4051 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT01116141 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of CC-292 Versus Placebo as Co-therapy With Methotrexate in Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01975610 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Phase III Clinical Trial Comparing the Safety, Efficacy, and Immunogenicity of Recombinant Anti-interleukin-6 Receptor Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in Combination With Methotrexate and Jamelor ® in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT06048224 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Trial of NNC0109-0012, an Anti-IL-20 Biologic, in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Are Inadequate Responders to Methotrexate NCT01636843 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2 Study of Hemay007 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT05247216 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.