A Study of CH-4051 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerpatients withmetastatictherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: at screeningarthritisdrugrheumatoidra
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 81089 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess CH1504 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00658047 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of CC-292 Versus Placebo as Co-therapy With Methotrexate in Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01975610 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Phase III Clinical Trial Comparing the Safety, Efficacy, and Immunogenicity of Recombinant Anti-interleukin-6 Receptor Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in Combination With Methotrexate and Jamelor ® in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT06048224 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of JNJ-40346527 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug Therapy NCT01597739 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-Concept Study With BMS-817399 to Treat Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01404585 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.