Efficacy and Safety Study of ARC-4558 for Management of Pain Associated With Painful Diabetic Neuropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicor equalequal togreater thanplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyparallel
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial in Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy With GRT3983Y NCT01056315 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of GRT6005 in Pain Due to Diabetic Polyneuropathy NCT01347671 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter Study Comparing the Analgesic Effects and Safety of ABT-639 Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Diabetic Neuropathic Pain NCT01345045 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy of 28 Days' Oral Administration of AZD2066 Compared With Placebo in Patients With Painful Diabetic Neuropathy NCT00857623 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study Into Pain Relief Given by ASP8477 for Peripheral Neuropathic Pain (Either Post-herpetic Neuralgia or Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy) and Its Safety NCT02065349 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.